Kim Jong Update

as a quick follow up to last weeks big news from the north.

It looks like Kim Jong Un, or the "great successor" will be taking over the helm of the DPRK with some help from him uncle Sung Taek and military leaders. It's interesting that there seems to be no one leader as there has been since 1945, which is an interesting divergence and, oddly enough, what happened in China after Mao's death. While I think we are still a ways away from Pyongyang hosting the Olympics it's actually a good start. Of course no one knows with certainty what is happening, but it seems the Fox News prediction of Santa weaving between mushroom clouds this Christmas is not going to be.

Lee Myung Bak, the President of the Republic of Korea (south) has sent condolences to "the people of north Korea" which is a difference from 1994 when Kim Il Sung died and the south did nothing. The ROK will not send a delegation to the north but small groups can go with the approval of the Ministry of Unification. Hyundai, who set up a plant in Kaesong (DPRK) under a joint management system will send a delegation. I think the south is handling it well. Not sending high level delegations and pretending they are sad about Kim's death (cause let's be honest, they're not) but sending informal delegates and wishing the people of the DPRK well instead. I think it's a good balance that will not go unnoticed in the north.

As to the video's of Korean's weeping hysterically for Kim. My personal take is that for people in Pyongyang it's probably real. They are the priviledged who have luxuries that most north Koreans don't have, such as food. Really they have nice modern apartments paid for by the state and would not be affected by seeing south Korean drama's, as their lives would be comparable. For the average peasant it's hard to say. I mean, a guy imprisons your family, starves you and makes your son spend 15 years in the military it's hard to believe that there would be much affection for him, but by all accounts from comparable situations the grief is real. Russians of the time genuinely grieved for Stalin's death, the suicide rate even spiked that week. Chinese today still venerate Mao Zedong and by all accounts his death was seen as a real loss. However, peasant north Koreans can buy bootleg south Korean drama's in China and they circulate in the north despite the ban. Chances are they have seen these shows and the production value alone would make it clear that they are not doing that badly. I mean, watch two Seoulites talk over a cup of coffee in a Korean movie would be a luxury unimagineable to these people, and from most accounts many northerners have seen this. North Korean defectors have also said that Kim Il Sung was genuinely loved by his people, as he was an actual revolutionary and guerilla fighter (say what you will about him, he was out there in -20 Manchurian nights bombing Japanese railroads and getting in to battles with Japanese troops in the 1930's and 1940's). There were also no major famines under him. In fact, in the 1960's north Korea was considered the more successful state. In contrast Kim Jong-Il was apparently less loved for the reasons outlined above. My guess is that much of the grief in Pyongyang is genuine (though the spontaneous eruption of tears at the news of his death is clearly staged) and the tears elsewhere may be a mix of grief and fear. Not fear for what will happen if you don't cry, but fear of what will happen next. Monarchical successions are tough at any time, and for a country that has endured 15 years of famine and starvation the unknown might be enough to make some people cry out of pure frustration and anger. I guess we'll have to wait for the north to collapse before we'll ever really know.

As for how it will all turn out. Kim Jong-Un lived in Switzerland as a teenager and is apparently an avid NBA fan. If he has real power he may wish to open up or be forced to to survive. However if he is merely a figurehead with Sung Taek and the military in real control then change may still be a ways away. As to predictions of impending doom in Korea. Don't be on it, it's the Japanese who do the suicide thing en masse.