Mid-season review

Well I'd usually do this after the All-Star break, but, well, I'm late. I'm not going to do a 30 team review cause I can't be bothered to do them all and, well frankly, I don't know enough about teams like Florida or Kansas City to do it. However, I do wanna discuss a few points on teams I follow or care about.

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

This is the league I really follow, so it'll get the bulk of the attention.

Seattle Mariners:

ah the Mariners. They were looking promising early on but a 17 game losing streak killed those chances. Ichiro Suzuki is looking to have his worst season ever (though I'd point out that in any other player it would be a break out year). He's on pace to hit .270 with 180 hits. It would be the first time in his 11 year career that he wouldn't hit above 200 (he currently holds the record for consecutive 200 hit seasons at 10, the runners up both had 8). Despite these numbers I still think he's the best player in the Major Leagues today, even if he is starting to show his age (he's 36). There's no other player who's produced his numbers over this decade and if he weren't playing in obscurity in Seattle he'd be a household name outside of Japan as well. Seattle also has excellent pitching in Pineda and Hernandez but the team can't generate hits. To be honest I've never heard of most of their lineup. This will be another write off season for the boys.

Texas Rangers:

Seattle's division rival is looking great with Hamilton and Beltran in the 3rd and 4th spots in the lineup. Last years American League Champions are looking good, though I doubt they will repeat last years success. They'll make the playoffs but won't be able to top Boston or New York (they will draw one of them I'm sure). I'll call a division series exit this year.

Boston Red Sox:

Well a team that spent the 20th century in the gutter has really turned it around this century (so far). Two World Series Championships (2004 and 2007) and numerous playoff appearances. Currently they are the best team in the American league and neck and neck with Philly for best overall. The race with the Yankees is intense (as it always is) but I think Boston will come out on top in the AL east (and the Yankees will win the wild card). I say this because both teams have superior hitting and so-so pitching, but Boston plays at Fenway, so giving up 10 runs is no problem when you are guaranteed 12. Boston is also much younger. Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury are both just starting off their career and guys like Marco Scutaro and Adrian Gonzalez are in their prime (Gonzalez has the highest batting average in the Major Leagues at this point). Ortiz is getting on but as the DH he doesn't need to be athletic (or really even able to move much faster than Jabba the Hut when he's at home). Youkilis and Varitek are also getting on in years but they have younger men ready to fill their shoes (Saltalamacchia is one of the best up and coming catchers in the major leagues, and for him to play with Varitek is gold). Boston's pitching is what will do them in. Wakefield is the master of inconsistency and Lester and Lackey have been shakey at best. Beckett is good but he can't do it alone. In fact the only thing keeping Boston on top is that New York's pitching is even worse.

New York Yankees:

Well the Yankees are once again a dominant force in baseball. A combination of great offense and baseball being the only sport without a salary cap continues to make this possible. The Yankees are primed for another playoff run and while I don't think they have what it takes to win it this year I would never count them out completely (as I'm happy to do with Texas). Arguably the best offense in the Major League with Texeira, Rodriguez, Jeter and Swisher to name but a few, the Yankees are favourites to beat any team in the Majors. However, they are an older team. Jeter, who got his 3000th hit this year, is 37. Alex Rodriguez, who is chasing the home run record, is 36. Jorge Posada is 39. It's an older team and when you start to go through the starting lineup you realize that few of them are under 30 and none under 25. Their pitching is also weak. CC Sabathia aside (who I personally think is the best pitcher in the AL) they have no one who can match the NL teams they'd likely meet should they make the World Series. AJ Burnett and Bartolo Colon are 34 and 38 respectively and while many pitchers often reach their prime only in their late 20's and early 30's power pitchers usually slow down in their 30's (Burnett is certainly a power pitcher and Colon is certainly past that age). All this being said, the Yankees have surprised many in the past and they may just have too much power for any pitching rotation out there.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Buck Martinez is a d!ck and contrary to his constant claims to the contrary Toronto are NOT Canada's team, they are NOT going to make the playoffs this year (a .500 record in the AL east?!?! Good luck Buck) and Jose Bautista is NOT the greatest player in the Major Leagues today. That being said, the ease with which most people hate Martinez and thus dismiss the team can overshadow a decent group. Jose Bautista may not be the best player now, but as Cliff Lee said, if he keeps these numbers up for 7-8 years he will be. Travis Snider is a great outfielder and fun to watch. Arencibia is a decent catcher and Escobar and Lind can both produce. Morrow is their only pitcher worth noting but this is a team that would have a chance were they not in a division race with Boston and New York.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Great team playing against better teams. In the same boat as Toronto but are a better team. They'd be leading the AL Central but in the AL east they are destined for a 3rd place finish. 'nuff said.

The Rest:

Well the Cleveland Indians have had a break out year and the addition of Kosuke Fukudome may give them that AL central championship and a playoff apprearance. I like them for a division series appearance. Detroit will give them some trouble but that's about it. If Cleveland misses Detriot is in. However, neither team would even be in contention in most other divisions (note that 4th place AL east Toronto has a BETTER record than Cleveland at the moment). In the west the LA Angels will be the only competition Texas has but those 2002-2003 teams are long gone and I can't see them overcoming the Rangers offensive power. The Oakland Athletics managed to pick up a few solid guys in the offseason (Hideki Matsui being the best example) but they haven't been able to do anything with them. They'll beat Seattle but that's about it.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

I don't follow these teams as closely so I'll say less about them, but with home field advantage in the World Series I think this years champion will be an NL team.

Philadelphia Phillies:

The Phillies are my prediction to win it all. They have great offense in Polance, Utley and Howard (plus a rejuvenated Raul Ibanez) and a starting pitching rotation that includes Cliff Lee, Roy Halliday and Cole Hamels. Currently the top team in the Majors they have some age issues but enough young guys to fill key roles. The 2008 World Series Champions I do think they can do it again this year, especially as if they make it they will have home field advantage, which in baseball (much moreso than other sports) means something. The only factor that goes against the Phillies is that the NL is a weaker league than the AL. So is their record worth as much as Boston's comparable AL record?

San Francisco Giants:

If the Phillies don't make the finals the Giants will. With Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum as your two top starting pitchers and decent offense from Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada (when he's off the DL) and now Carlos Beltran they can give the Phillies a run for their money. I can't see them having any trouble in the NL west but I don't see them getting by the Phillies. They won it all in 2010 but I don't think they have what it takes to repeat, though much like the Yankees I won't predict an exit.

Chicago Cubs

The oldest professional sports team in the world and the 1907 and 1908 World Series Champions will be unlikely to get a third championship this year as they are well below .500 in a tough division. I love the Cubbies and would love to see them win just one more time (though I'm sure some 90 year old Cubs fans are saying the same thing). With Fukudome off to Cleveland all thats left is Aramis Ramirez on offense and Ryan Dempster to pitch (if he ever gets healthy again). Ah well.

The Rest:

As noted above, while I think the best team at this point is in the NL, they are alone (in fact San Francisco might be the only other team from the NL I'd put in the top 10). This means that the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers records may be better than they look. The New York Mets stink, the LA Dodgers stink, the San Diego Padres stink. The Pittsburgh Pirates may put their first winning record in 20 years together, which I'm thrilled to see, but it won't be enough to give them a real chance. Arizona is playing well but I can't see them catching San Francisco. The Atlanta Braves are playing well and could do a wildcard birth and even an NL Championship birth. They will be the team to upset the Giants/Phillies. The Milwaukee Brewers are having a breakout year but I think they will lose ground to the St. Louis Cardinals in August and September. The Cards are close despite multiple injuries.


So, here are my midseason predictions for the playoffs:

AL:

West -         Texas Rangers
Central -      Cleveland Indians
East -           Boston Red Sox
Wildcard -    New York Yankees

NL:

West -         San Francisco Giants
Central -      St. Louis Cardinals
East -           Philadelphia Phillies
Wildcard -   Atlanta Braves