Tuesday, November 1, 2011

How to make North Korea seem scarier than it is

Read this CNN article

This happens a lot here in Korea, though oddly enough not with Korean media, but with western media. It makes North Korea out to be a scary monster that could snap at any time. Be afraid, be very afraid. Except don't be.

Not that our wacky neighbours to the north don't do crazy things. They made a big boom in 2008 that we assumed to be a nuclear weapon (it probably is, but it's never actually been verified), they sunk the Cheonan, a Republic of Korea vessel in 2010 and later that year shelled the island of Yeonpyeon-do (misspelled in the CNN article). They can be belligerent, demanding and confrontational. But are they really THAT big an issue? Are they USSR east? Reading this article you'd think so.

However, the main point is that "Next year, I believe that the possibility of North Korea conducting additional provocations is ... very high."  That's right, they MIGHT. In the same way that, say, Klingons in a Death Star might land on earth. Next year is the 100th birthday of Kim Il-Sung. Kim Jong-il's father and founder of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea). It's also been suggested that an ageing Kim jr. might pass the reigns on to his son Kim Jong-Un. Suggested because of course no one knows for sure. What we do get in re hashed scare tactics like this one:

"North Korea continues to defy the international community as it enhances its nuclear weapons, its ballistic missile programs and continues to engage in dangerous and destabilizing proliferation activities."

In 2007 they tested two medium range missiles, that failed, and stopped when asked to do so by the Chinese. Again, not a friendly gesture, but when the then president of the most powerful state on earth puts you third on his hit list then attacks and lynches the guy he named as number one it is understandable. Besides, isn't the US demanding that other nations not have weapons like listening to Donald Trump talk about how the high minimum wage is killing business? Finally, this was FIVE years ago. Not an eternity I grant but still.

"Denuclearization means they have to stop testing, they have to stop developing weapons, they have to stop enriching in violation of international rules and requirements, and they have to allow the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] to go in and inspect those facilities."

-except for the IAEA part they've already done this.

"Even as the nuclear issue continues to simmer, a new threat is emerging -- cyber security.
The threat can't be ignored, Panetta said."

-This is my favourite. I mean, North Korea has never actually done this. They don't even have the internet there let alone computer experts to match those in the US, South Korea or Japan, but let's assume that they might. While we're at it, let's assume that they will put bombs on hanggliders and glide them to Seoul. I mean they never have, but it's a threat that can't be ignored.......  in much the same way that Klingons on a Death Star is a potential threat that can't be ignored.




Here's a few other re-hashed "facts" about North Korea that you will hear used again and again:

North Korea spend 1/4 of it's budget on its military

- so a quarter of what? $3.75? This IS true, but it's so meaningless as to be comical. Here a list of countries and their military budgets. Look at number one. YIKES! But look at number 13 South Korea at 26 billion dollars a year (add to that the insane amount spent by number one USA). While North Korea doesn't report it's estimated spending, experts in the US have calculated it at roughly 26%. That is 26% of approximately 40 billion US dollars, or about 10 billion, putting it on par with Greece or Poland. That's right. 3% of South Korean spending equals 2.5x the 26% North Korea spends. Add to that the age of the weapons the North has (I think you can still see a faded CCCP on the sides of those missiles :P). Now of course 10 billion is still a LOT, and they could cause a lot of trouble before they were wiped out, but do the math, they would be wiped out. It would be a 3 week suicide attack.

China will support the north, China is the problem..... but not really.

According to the Korea Times 60,000 Chinese study in Korea. Now that is not just 60,000 but 60,000 of the wealthiest, most connected Chinese. Rural Chinese have no chance of affording an education in China, much less Korea. That 60,000 come from wealthier Beijing or Shanghainese families. While the article states that many are unhappy in Korea (not the point I want to make, it's just the most reliable article with real numbers that Icould find) the fact remains that 60,000 are here. Do you think China will allow North Korea to wipe out 60,000 sons and daughters of businessmen, party officials, military officers or medium sized investors? Add to that the fact that South Korea and China rank 3rd as trading partners respectively (both behind the US and Japan) and you start to wonder exactly why China would want to see the north attack South Korea and possibly Japan and dragging the US in to yet another money wasting foreign crusade. In fact it may just be that China would work very hard NOT too see it's three biggest trading partners weakened or destroyed and 60,000 of it's future leaders killed.


So why is North Korea made out to be the destroyer of civilization?


Well they ARE an issue in Korea and NE Asia and they are a bit of a wildcard, but that's about it. Reunification will set the South back 30 years and most Koreans I have asked about this, while agreeing that unification is best, don't want it until they are 40 or 50 and so financially stable enough to support the blow that will come financially.

Otherwise I think a CNN headline like "North Korea is Somewhat Irritating" or "Everything's Fine" will not get people watching or browsing their website. So rehashing scare stories and omitting relevant facts to make better news is what is done. No one is lying, but not all the facts are reported.

That multi-trillion dollar US defense budget is now a part of the economy creating jobs and wealth that is reinvested in the political parties that run the show. The fact that the US could cut it's budget in half and still spend more than the next four powers COMBINED shows how overblown that budget is. I guess justifying a 7.6 trillion dollar budget to counter a 10 billion dollar budget must be justified somehow. Especially when so much of the US and the world at large could use that money for so many better things. Half that budget would end poverty in Africa, homelessness in America, fund education for every US citizen through a bachelors degree. Create a retirement pension for every US citizen. It could end hunger around the globe and have the entire world in love with America again instead of loathing it.

But no time for that trivial stuff, North Korea is set to up it's military budget to 30% in 2012.

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