Headline: North Koreans Prepare for Total War (In 1953, 1956, 1961, 1964, 1972, 1982, 1986, 1988, 1994, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2013)

So yeah, here I am in Korean crisis 2013. The exciting follow up to 2009 and 2010 when the north did all the exact same stuff.

I have to admit, it feels a bit more intense this time, as Koreans are actually talking about it instead of Kpop and Korean dramas. But here's the thing, every time the South Koreans and the US have military drills this happens. Add to that the new president in the south, who is the daughter of former dictator Park Chung Hee and you have a recipe for trouble.

I wrote about the last set of troubles here and here.

Here's what is happening now.

Park Geun Hae, daughter of former president (re: ruthless military dictator) of South Korea has now been elected president. While far more moderate than her father she is still a hardliner with the north. Kim III is also the new king or the north and eager to show off. How Park handles this may well determine her presidency. The North Koreans know this.

War games are also on between the ROK and the United States, and this always prompts a reaction from Pyongyang. In 2010 they shelled an island in South Korea, and this seems like a similar reaction. They talk a big game but lets look at the situation realistically:



Lets say, god forbid, the north actually attacked. They can hit Seoul and cause serious damage, but they would have a hell of a time getting through US and ROK soldiers along the DMZ. their weapons are Brezhnev hand me downs while the US and ROK have modern weapons. They could do damage but the US/ROK response would be overwhelming and final. The US can shoot down their missiles and flatten Pyongyang using submarines stationed in Guam and Hawaii. Add to that the Japanese self defense force, which would be allowed to engage in this circumstance and you have the most one sided fight since the Red Sox/Rockies World Series. The North Koreans know this.

China has 60,000 students in the south now. South Korea is their 4th largest trading partner. They have a vested interest in the south. The north wants handouts and causes them headaches. If the north fired at Seoul they would undoubtedly hit some of these students, who's parents are well connected businessmen and military personnel. How do you think Beijing will react to that? Traditionally it's been with 200,000,000 Red Army soldiers. Heck the Chinese may welcome a united Korea free of US troops on it's border, even if that country is a staunch US ally. There are also 10,000 Russian here, you start killing them? Does Putin strike you as an old softy? The old allies no longer want the north's rhetoric when they can have Hyundai and Samsung. The North Koreans know this.




Of course CNN has us already is a post war rebuilding with Seoul, Tokyo and Pyongyang all in a haze of nuclear fallout, but that is for ratings. The story "North Koreans are at it again" just doesn't sound as good. But the truth is all it does is get America thinking North Korea and a country weary of foreign wars and gross expenditures it may get those Americans wanting a quick peace just to end the conflict. At least North Korea is taken seriously and may be able to haggle for more. The more noise it makes, the more CNN has us staving off WWIII. The North Koreans know this.


So what will happen? China or the US or even the South Koreans will offer them a deal to shut up. They'll take it and then break it and start up nuclear tests again and this will all read just as true in 2016. However the fact is that 90% of the globe is basically on the same page and these last holdouts like North Korea can't last forever. Seoul is a major centre in the global market and South Korea is a major link in the global economy.



So don't listen to CNN, they make money scaring you. Listen to common sense and follow the money trail.